Twelve years ago, NASA predicted around 50 Earthlike planets would be discovered by the Kepler telescope, planets with the same size, warmth and host star as we do. And yet, we're left essentially none. What happened? Why did those predictions not match reality? And what can we learn from these 50 lost dreams...

Written & presented by Prof David Kipping

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::References::
► NASA Exoplanet Archive: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech...
► Borucki & Summers (1984), "The photometric method of detecting other planetary systems": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/198...
► Borucki et al. (1996), "FRESIP: A Mission to Determine the Character and Frequency of ExtraSolar Planets Around SolarLike Stars": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/199...
► Borucki et al. (1997), "The Kepler Mission: A Mission To Detennine The Frequency Of Inner Planets Near The Habitable Zone For A Wide Range Of Stars": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/199...
► Borucki et al. (2003), "The Kepler Mission: Finding the Sizes, Orbits and Frequencies of Earthsize and Larger Extrasolar Planets": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/200...
► Borucki et al. (2003), "Kepler Mission: a mission to find Earthsize planets in the habitable zone": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/200...
► Borucki et al. (2004), "The Kepler mission: a technical overview": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/200...
► Quintana et al. (2014), "An Earthsized Planet in the Habitable Zone of a Cool Star": https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.5667
► Jenkins et al. (2015), "Discovery and Validation of Kepler452b: A 1.6Re Super Earth Exoplanet in the Habitable Zone of a G2 Star":
https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06723
► Mullaly et al. (2018), "Kepler's Earthlike Planets Should Not Be Confirmed Without Independent Detection: The Case of Kepler452b": https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.11307
► Burke et al. (2019), "ReEvaluating Small LongPeriod Confirmed Planets From Kepler": https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.00506
► The LUVOIR team (2019), "The LUVOIR Mission Concept Study Final Report", https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.06219
► Borucki et al. (2020), "Science merit function for the Kepler mission": https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/202...
► Christiansen et al. (2020): "Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline. IV. Completeness of the DR25 Planet Candidate Catalog": https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.04796
► Astro 2020 Decadal Survey: https://nap.edu/resource/26141/intera...

::Music::
Music licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], or via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/..., or with permission from the artist
► Brad Hill Evening Approaches (0:00) [https://open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Atlas Waking Up (01:48)
► Brad Hill There is but One Good (03:54) [https://open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Falls Life in Binary (07:35)
► Chris Zabriskie Cylinder Five (12:55)
► Chris Zabriskie We Were Never Meant to Live Here (15:01)
► Falls Ripley (18:20)
► Brad Hill Fragmented (22:13) [https://open.spotify.com/album/1QDRub...]
► Chris Zabriskie Cylinder Two (23:16)
► Chris Zabriskie Cylinder Four (26:52)
► Brad Hill Arc (31:22) [https://open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Chris Zabriskie Stories About the World That Once Was (33:09)

::Film/TV clips used::
► Ad Astra (2019) 20th Century Fox
► The Matrix: Reloaded (2003) Warner Bros. Pictures
► The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) New Line Cinema
► (500) Days of Summer (2009) Fox Searchlight Pictures
► Sunshine (2007) Fox Searchlight Pictures

::Chapters::
00:00 Fifty Dreams
07:36 Expectations
12:57 Reality
22:14 Expectations vs Reality
31:23 Lessons from Kepler
38:07 Outro and credits

#50LostEarths #CoolWorlds