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MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

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N N Talebs Probability Moocs

What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information?
A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What's her or his failure rate?
I didn't realize that the trick wasn't in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.

posted by ale1te2u


MINI LECTURE 14 A First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical).
MINI LECTURE 14 A First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical).
Probability Lecture 1: Events, probabilities & elementary combinatorics 1st Year Student Lecture
Probability Lecture 1: Events, probabilities & elementary combinatorics 1st Year Student Lecture
Universa’s Taleb on Inflation, Global Financial Markets, & Crypto
Universa’s Taleb on Inflation, Global Financial Markets, & Crypto
Nassim Taleb 4 Rules To Become Antifragile (For A Better Life)
Nassim Taleb 4 Rules To Become Antifragile (For A Better Life)
Is the world going quants mad? Dr Paul Wilmott
Is the world going quants mad? Dr Paul Wilmott
MINILESSON 5: Correlation, the intuition. Doesn't mean what people usually think it means.
MINILESSON 5: Correlation, the intuition. Doesn't mean what people usually think it means.
Why Does Diffusion Work Better than AutoRegression?
Why Does Diffusion Work Better than AutoRegression?
MINILESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified)
MINILESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified)
Comments on the 'Bitcoin Black Paper' (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0)
Comments on the 'Bitcoin Black Paper' (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0)
MINILESSON 1: Breaking down intuitively the concept of standard deviation. Why pple don't get it.
MINILESSON 1: Breaking down intuitively the concept of standard deviation. Why pple don't get it.
Nassim Taleb 11 Rules For Life (How To Live a Resilient Life)
Nassim Taleb 11 Rules For Life (How To Live a Resilient Life)
6. Monte Carlo Simulation
6. Monte Carlo Simulation
Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
QUANT FINANCE 1 Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1
QUANT FINANCE 1 Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1
MINI LECTURE 13 Claims that Violence Has Dropped Are Not Statistical
MINI LECTURE 13 Claims that Violence Has Dropped Are Not Statistical
Gad Saad's Opinion Of Nassim Taleb
Gad Saad's Opinion Of Nassim Taleb
MINILESSON 6: Fooled by Metrics (Correlation)
MINILESSON 6: Fooled by Metrics (Correlation)
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (ENG) The Black Swan Living with the Highly Improbable
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Nassim Taleb Follow No One, Trust in Yourself [w/ Naval Ravikant]
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MINILESSON 3: The Law of Large Numbers. A very intuitive introduction.
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