At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate in a target range of 5.25%5.5%. In their Summary of Economic Projections, most members see three rate cuts in 2024.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee says that three rate cuts are ""in line"" with his thinking, though he cautions the projections are not ""forward guidance.""

In an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger, Goolsbee says the January inflation readings were higher than the Fed wanted, but that they follow several months of ""quite good"" CPI and PCE data. As a result, Goolsbee says ""we're in a little bit of a murky period"" and an ""uncertain state,"" but that ""it doesn't feel to me like we've changed, fundamentally, the story that we're getting back to target.""

Goolsbee admits that inflation is where ""we [the Fed] have missed."" ""The main puzzle has been about housing. We have got to get housing inflation coming down closer to where it was before the pandemic,"" Goolsbee says.
Goolsbee wouldn't say if a rate cut in June is on the table given how much data the Fed will get between now and that meeting, adding that he believes ""we should never rule out or rule in anything when we've got a whole lot of data to come.""

On the consumer, Goolsbee says, ""The consumer has been a strong part of the economy."" He highlights the data ""has mixed our picture a little of how much consumer spending and what payroll jobs numbers we can sustain for a given rate of inflation has been mixed a little by the recalculation about immigration,"" pointing to new reports on how there was more immigration than expected since 2022.

When it comes to the balance sheet, Goolsbee says Fed Chair Jerome Powell was ""spot on"" when he said, ""The decision to slow the pace of runoff does not mean our balance sheet will shrink, but allows us to approach that ultimate level more gradually."" Goolsbee says he wants interest rates and the balance sheet runoff ""on separate tracks."" ""Our decisions about the balance sheet are not decisions about rate and monetary policy,"" he adds.

00:00: Goolsbee talks ""murky"" inflation data and getting inflation to the 2% target
04:36 Why housing is a ""puzzle"" in the inflation battle
05:16 Is a June rate cut on the table?
06:50 Goolsbee on three rate cuts in 2024
07:35 Why Goolsbee says he is a ""loose subscriber"" to the Taylor rule
10:05 Goolsbee talks the consumer, boost from immigration
11:44 Goolsbee on the Fed's balance sheet"

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