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NOTES

An important correction:

(TL/DR: my first response to Sean's last question was "there's research in both directions", which does seem to be true. But I then concluded by saying, "the studies actually show the opposite" when I should have said have said, "some studies appear to show the opposite". I wasn't speaking carefully and suggested that there is a consensus in the opposite direction. I had based this on work by Jacob Mchangama, but upon review think it at best shows that the results are inconclusive (especially in deducing a causal relationship between free speech and less social conflict and violence, as opposed to mere correlation). This is still a relevant observation, but did not warrant me saying that "the studies actually show the opposite". Also the study I cited on terrorism refers to offline free speech, as freedom online is difficult to measure accurately, and the link was found only in democracies, with the results in autocracies being mixed.)

The study I cited can be found here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/...

I wanted to say that this study is only conclusive for offline speech, not online speech, and so may have not been a good study to cite in this context. The authors write that "the relative absence of precise data and open questions regarding how to measure freedom in the cybersphere means that whether freedom of expression in electronic media is different must remain an open question."

It's also worth emphasising that the study found an unambiguous association between increased discursive freedom and reduction in terrorism in democracies, but the results in autocracies are mixed.

Also, I think it was too strong to say "the evidence points the other way":

I had based this on Jacob Mchangama's recent history of free speech in which he writes, "But while online expression may sometimes lead to reallife harm, it does not necessarily follow that placing restrictions on free speech is an effective remedy. On the contrary, studies suggest that, on the whole, freedom of expression is associated with less rather than more violent extremism and social conflict in democracies. The preventive effect of free speech on terrorist attacks seems particularly strong." (Mchangama, "Free Speech: A Global History From Socrates to Social Media", Hardback, p. 371)

For the final claim he cites the study linked above, and for the more general claim he cites his own work which can be found online here: https://www.catounbound.org/2018/06/..., itself mentioning a thenupcoming study, now published and available here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/r3yvzyt1zfn...

The study finds that "some of the most commonly expressed concerns regarding freedom of
expression — such as its potential detrimental effects on social conflicts (including genocide), radicalization and terrorism — by and large are not supported by the evidence or the existing research literature", and that increased freedom of speech is associated with a number of societal benefits and less social conflict in democracies.

My understanding is that, especially concerning online media, the evidence is unclear and the issue far from settled regarding the influence of free speech on hate crime.

So, my first statement that "there's research in both directions" was accurate, but I said, "the studies actually show the opposite" when I should have said have said, "some studies appear to show the opposite".

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