Peter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, CounterElites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, joins The Realignment. Peter and Marshall discuss his 2010 prediction that the U.S. would experience significant political turmoil in 2020, the factors that drove 20102020s political conflict, why the eliteoverproduction phenomenon is one of the strongest determinants of societal health, and the historical precedents of nations remaining unified in the face of the above challenges.

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Peter's 2010 Nature Article: https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

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Foundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln...

0:00 Introduction
0:43 Current trends of instability
8:18 US Elites
17:40 What is the “counterelite?”
20:15 Historical examples of elite overproduction
33:28 Predictions for 2020’s
36:53 Right & Left wing elites
39:50 19th Century British Empire